Why voters of a certain age may have veered Seattle toward the center

With more and more votes counted after Tuesday’s first election results, the numbers don’t seem to be changing too much.

The large gaps between the candidates in many races remain.

Bruce Harrell still has a commanding lead over Lorena González, 64 to 35%, in the race for Seattle Mayor. Meanwhile, two of the other progressive city council and attorney candidates, Nikkita Oliver and Nicole Thomas-Kennedy, are still well behind in their respective races.

KUOW’s Kim Malcolm spoke to policy reporter David Hyde to understand the results so far.

This interview was edited for the sake of clarity.

Kim Malcolm: You were at the Bruce Harrell election rally last night. What did he have to say?

David Hyde: The same kind of moderately progressive message we hear from him all year round. He talked about unity, about bringing the city together, about putting Seattle at the center, on some of the key issues voters and candidates have been talking about this year: homelessness, public safety, policing.

I know you spoke to the voters about the issues this week. Did you hear anything that could support this and explain these results?

Yes sir. I would say the biggest factor explaining the split among the Seattle Democrats this year might turn out to be age. People over 50, 60, 70 and older tend to sound a little more moderate. Here is a woman named Lora May who spoke to me shortly after she cast her vote:

“Homelessness, cleaning up our streets and no debt relief from our police.”

Compare that to people in their 20s and 30s who tend to sound more progressive. Jenny Woo was in the same ballot box:

“More advocacy for low incomes, for people of color, for communities of color.”

Today I spoke to Jake Grumbach, Professor of Political Science at the University of Washington, about:

“To sum up US political behavior, if you want to know which party someone is voting for – Democrats, Republicans, or third parties – you should know their racial background. Within a party, if you want to know what type of Democrat or Republican is, you want to know their age. Age is the best predictor in the Democratic primary. For example, among black voters, younger black voters tend to vote for progressive candidates, while older black voters tend to vote for more moderate candidates. Here, too, the age within the party is the best predictor. “

The other thing that Professor Grumbach wanted to talk about is the turnout, which will be roughly where it would normally be in off-year elections in Seattle, around 50%. Unlike some other states, we still elect local candidates in off-year elections like this one. It turns out that younger people vote much less often than older voters in these off-year elections. To be clear, younger people just choose a lot less time, but that trend is stronger with those polls in odd years. In practice this tends to lean the balance in favor of the more moderate older voters.

Would that be enough to explain these results? What about concerns about increasing gun violence and security in the city center?

If we end up with double-digit profits, it will be much harder to see election year as the only or biggest factor. Also, keep in mind that progressive candidates often do very well here. In 2019, the unsupported candidates practically led to the table in the city council races.

Let’s take a look at some other races where progressive candidates are lagging: City Council # 9 and also the Seattle City Attorney.

Yes, if Ann Davison holds out and wins the city attorney race, Seattle voters will have voted their first Republican since the 1980s. She is ahead of Nicole Thomas-Kennedy, the more progressive candidate who ran as an abolitionist.

Similar story at position 9. Sara Nelson, a business owner, is currently at the forefront of the indictment against attorney and activist Nikkita Oliver, also an abolitionist. You could say based on the trends we’ve seen so far, the abolitionist candidates didn’t do well. And there is some evidence that nationwide, in blue cities like Seattle, temperate, even business-friendly, messages have been doing pretty well.

On the flip side, it would be a huge mistake to believe that Seattle has suddenly become more Republican, as I’ve suggested on some websites that seem to have some more conservative people hoping the city is leaning more Republican right now. Specifically, if you look at the city attorney’s race, I don’t know, but if Davison holds out, it probably has a lot more to do with voters voting against Nicole Thomas-Kennedy than with people suddenly becoming Republicans. So Seattle is no less blue today than it was on October 31st.

Listen to the interview by clicking the play button above.

https://www.kuow.org/stories/why-voters-of-a-certain-age-may-have-veered-seattle-toward-the-center
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