Seattle needs win and help Sunday to advance

(NOTE, this story has been updated from the Mariners 6-4 win over the Angels on Saturday night to better reflect the playoff picture.)

The Mariners are now only one game back as they enter the final game of the season and their way forward is clearer after beating the Angels 6-4 on Saturday night.

Haniger keeps the playoff hopes of the Mariners alive in the 6: 4 win against Angels

With the win, the Mariners kept pace with the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, who each won on Saturday, while the New York Yankees lost to the Tampa Bay Rays.

On entering the final game of the season, Boston and New York are 91-70, while Seattle and Toronto are tied at 90-71.

The Red Sox’s win on Saturday ensured the Mariners could at best force at least one game 163 instead of going straight to the wildcard game, even with a win and a little help on Sunday.

In order for the Mariners to move past Sunday they need to win and get help, and there are several ways forward. All of them involve at least one of Boston or New York losing on Sunday.

Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s get to it.

Four-way tie

The Mariners win on Saturday leaves the possibility open that all four teams will be drawn after 162 games. That would create a scenario where there are two play-in games for the right to go to the actual wildcard game.

How can this happen?

This scenario is relatively simple. That means the Mariners have to win on Sunday and both Boston and New York have to lose on Sunday. In this situation, the Blue Jays would also win on Sunday.

The four teams would all choose a name for Team A, B, C, or D. (Order would be Boston, Toronto, New York, Seattle)

Team A would host Team B and Team C would host Team D. That means the Mariners would almost certainly face either the Blue Jays or the Red Sox, as they would pick the last of the four in that scenario. That would mean the Yankees would choose between a trip to Boston or Toronto, while the Mariners would go where New York doesn’t want to.

Three-way tie

Again, the Mariners have to win on Sunday for this to happen. And there are three scenarios for achieving this.

First, if Seattle wins and one of Boston or New York loses and the Blue Jays win.

In this scenario, the losing Mariners, Blue Jays and Yankees or Red Sox would all be tied for second place with the wild card. There would then be a three-way tiebreaker scenario where two of the three teams compete against each other and the winner then competes against the third team for the right to play the best wildcard team.

If the Yankees lose to reigning AL champion Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday and the Mariners win on Sunday and the Blue Jays win, the Blue Jays would have the first choices in choosing between Team A, B, or C (order: Toronto, New York, Seattle).

If Toronto chose Team C, they would face the winner of Team A and Team B, who would be played at Team A’s ballpark. Team C would then travel to the winning team’s home field.

So Team C can choose the “bye”, but they would have to take to the streets in a one-game playoff to get to the actual one-game playoff.

In this scenario, the Mariners are almost certainly Team B, so they would likely go to New York against the Yankees and the winner would host the Blue Jays. Whoever wins that second game then goes to Boston for the actual wildcard game.

But if the Yankees win and the Red Sox lose on Sunday, Boston would have top spots, the Mariners second, and Toronto third. That would mean the Mariners would either be Team A and host Team B (Toronto), or they would be Team C and have that “bye” before heading to the Red Sox winner of the Blue Jays.

There is also a possibility of a three-way tie if the Mariners win and all Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays lose.

In this scenario, the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mariners are alive and seats would be chosen.

Team A would face Team B and the winner is a wildcard team. The loser would then travel to Team C and the winner of that game is the second wildcard team. The winner of that second game would then travel to the winner of the first game.

In this scenario (when the Mariners are involved) Boston would make the initial decisions in choosing the team, and the Red Sox would have to decide whether to be Team C or the winner of Team A vs. Team B in a Do or Play roll the dice OR they could be Team A and host Team B, which gives them two chances to win.

The Red Sox would likely go for Team A, while the Yankees would then have a second choice and would have to choose between an extra day off and just one chance to move up or travel to Boston and give themselves two games like the Red Sox, to win one. Whatever they didn’t choose, the Mariners would get.

Straight tie

This scenario is much simpler.

In this, the Mariners would win on Sunday and the Blue Jays, with whom they would be equal on Sunday, would lose to the Orioles on Sunday. Then only one of the Yankees or the Red Sox would lose.

In this scenario, the Mariners and one of the Yankees or Red Sox would be tied. Seattle lost the season streak to both teams, so they traveled to either Boston or New York to compete against whichever team won on Sunday.

Most importantly

Remember, a losing Sunday ends the Mariners season even if each of the other three teams loses.

Sunday schedule

All four wildcard contenders have essentially the same start time on Sunday.

• Rays @ Yankees: 12:05 pm
• Red Sox @ Nationals: 12:05 pm
• Orioles @ Blue Jays: 12:07 pm
• Engel @ Mariners: 12:10 pm

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